For years, the crypto industry argued that institutional adoption would drive price momentum and prevent major crashes.
Currently, that narrative appears broken as the market is not just slowing; it is showing signs of deep struggle.
Crypto market tests hard waters
As per an analyst, in the past 140 days, more than $2 trillion in value has been wiped out. The total crypto market cap has shrunk sharply. Bitcoin [BTC] has fallen to around $63,228, nearly 50% below its peak as of writing.
Ethereum [ETH] was trading near $1,825, down about 62% from its high. The biggest damage, however, is in altcoins. Solana [SOL] has dropped around 68%, and many smaller tokens have lost up to 90% of their value.
Instead of fear and greed, the market now feels exhausted and defeated. This feels bigger than a normal correction.
Factors behind this downturn
The key question now is whether this is simply the end of another market cycle or something more long-lasting.
If looked carefully, after the excitement of 2025, investors moved quickly through worry and are now stuck in panic mode.
Source: Merlijn The Trade/X
Fear levels are extremely high, and many retail traders are hesitant to act. At the same time, large and experienced investors are closely watching key indicators like the MVRV ratio.
Bitcoin’s 30-day MVRV is at -10.33%, and Ethereum’s is at -14.04%, showing that most people who bought recently are losing money.
Source: Santiment
In the past, such levels often suggested that prices were oversold and could bounce back. However, late 2025 showed that low prices can stay low for a long time.
Additionally, the 2024 Bitcoin halving was expected to push prices higher by reducing supply, as it did in past cycles. But instead of strong demand, 2026 has brought weak buying interest.
Source: Bitbo
Even though earlier cycles saw major rallies after halvings, Bitcoin is now showing signs of exhaustion rather than growth.
Additionally, miners are earning more from transaction fees than before, but the shift away from block rewards has not been smooth, putting pressure on Bitcoin’s “digital gold” image.
Source: CoinGecko
Political factors also shape the crypto market
The pressure intensified on the 21st of February when U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 15% global tariff.
That decision made investors move money into safer assets like the U.S. dollar and gold. And rising geopolitical tensions are adding even more pressure to an already fragile market.
The stress in the market is most clearly seen among Bitcoin miners. Recently, mining difficulty has fallen, which usually happens when miners turn off machines because they are no longer profitable.
Source: Glassnode
At the same time, miners’ income has dropped due to lower prices and fewer transactions. To survive, many miners are selling their Bitcoin holdings to cover expenses.
Source: Glassnode
This situation, known as miner capitulation, often happens near market bottoms and removes weaker players from the network. However, in the short term, these forced sales add more pressure to prices and make it harder for the market to recover quickly.
Liquidation is another catalyst
While global tariffs and pressure on miners started the decline, more than $600 million in forced liquidations in just 24 hours made the crash much worse.
When prices began to fall, many traders who had borrowed money to bet on higher prices were forced out of their positions, which pushed prices down even faster.
Still, the big question remains unanswered. Is this the final crash before the next recovery driven by the halving cycle, or the beginning of a new, weaker era for crypto?
For now, the data suggests that until liquidations slow down and MVRV levels improve, prices may still have room to fall.
Final Summary
- Negative MVRV levels reflect widespread losses but do not guarantee an immediate recovery.
- Weak post-halving demand has challenged Bitcoin’s long-standing growth narrative.
