Crypto analyst Cristian Chifoi says the Bitcoin price action is repeating 2022 cycle patterns, however solely in reverse. Again then, the US Federal Reserve (FED) price hikes triggered a staggering 63% crash within the BTC worth. Now with the FED getting ready to finish Quantitative Tightening (QT), Chifoi believes the identical macro setup may push costs in the wrong way, doubtlessly marking the beginning of Bitcoin’s subsequent main rally.
Bitcoin Value Traces 2022 Cycle Sample In Reverse
Chifoi explained on X social media on November 2 that Bitcoin’s behaviour seems to be replaying the 2022 macroeconomic environment in reverse. Again in March 2022, he famous that when the FED first introduced aggressive price hikes, the Bitcoin worth was trending close to $46,000. Because the US central financial institution delivered its preliminary two hikes of fifty and 75 foundation factors by June that yr, BTC collapsed to $17,000, marking the technical backside of that cycle.
Because the FED continued to hike from a complete of 175 to 550 bps, the market had already absorbed the shock. Chifoi revealed that Bitcoin had entered its accumulation phase and started to reverse upward whilst different market specialists labeled the central financial institution’s actions “irresponsible” and belated.
Quick ahead to the current, Chifoi believes that the cycle is now flipping. With the FED just lately announcing the end of Quantitative Tightening by December, he predicts that the following three-month window may set off a strong bullish surge that might drive Bitcoin to a top moderately than a backside.
He factors to late December by means of January 20, 2026, as the important thing interval to observe, suggesting that the crypto market may rally sharply earlier than coming into a cooling section as liquidity totally returns.
Liquidity Spikes And Repo Indicators Help Thesis
Supporting his evaluation, Chifoi referenced a publish made by one other analyst referred to as ‘ChurchOfTheCycle,’ who shared a telling FRED chart displaying a surge in Overnight Repurchase Agreements—Treasury securities quickly bought by the FED in open market operations.
The chart, which spans from 2000 to 2025, highlights a sudden and substantial spike in repo exercise, suggesting potential liquidity injections into the monetary system. The analyst famous that this spike alone doesn't assure a market crash, as traditionally such will increase have sometimes offered a short-term enhance for equities and crypto.
He additional famous that the FED’s current actions point out stress within the monetary system and an early stage of liquidity support, which may push speculative property greater.
Primarily based on this, the analyst predicts that the market may nonetheless enter a parabolic phase from This autumn 2025 to Q1 2026 earlier than going through a significant crash in 2026, roughly 6-12 months from the time of his publish on November 2. As a precaution, he warns merchants to observe credit score spreads, repo exercise ranges, and VIX correlation for early indicators of tightening liquidity.
Featured picture created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
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