- BTC’s mid-term outlook appeared cautious and aligned with the historic summer time lull.
- Nevertheless, Polymarket bettors extremely anticipated a brand new ATH in Q3.
Bitcoin [BTC] reclaimed $108.2K and prolonged its mid-week rally to just about 10%, because of comparatively calm markets after the Israel-Iran ceasefire deal.
Regardless of the short-term optimistic outlook, nevertheless, the market was pricing in a mid-term warning, in response to Glassnode.
Citing the Choices market sentiment indicator, 25 Delta Skew, the analytics agency flagged bearish sentiment as proven by the detrimental skew for 3-month and 6-month tenors.
“3m and 6m (skew) stay detrimental (-2.6%, -4.3%). Mixed with a put-heavy quantity profile, this factors to diminished short-term panic, however lingering medium-term warning.”
Supply: Glassnode
This meant a premium for places (bearish bets) over calls (bullish bets) on the finish of Q3 and December 2025.
Summer time seasonal at play?
Unsurprisingly, the above sentiment and market positioning, particularly for Q3, mirrored the summer time seasonals.
In keeping with CoinGlass’ historical efficiency, summer time has all the time been the worst interval for BTC. On common, BTC posted 6% returns in Q3, with the most effective interval being This fall (85%), adopted by Q1 (54%).
Supply: CoinGlass
Nevertheless, not all months inside Q3 carried out poorly up to now. Particularly, July has been an outlier, with 7.5% returns on common, suggesting historic weakening in August and September.
If historical past repeats, July may supply modest positive aspects adopted by promoting strain afterwards. Most analysts hyperlink this pattern to low buying and selling exercise as a consequence of summer time holidays.
Nevertheless, previous efficiency doesn’t assure future outcomes.
In reality, Polymarket bettors have been betting towards the above seasonality. The prediction web site extremely expects a brand new all-time excessive (ATH) earlier than October, with over an 85% chance for such an consequence.
In different phrases, the market expects a push above $112K in Q3. Analyst Stockmoney Lizards echoed this consensus and eyed a possible bounce to $115K by August.
Supply: Stockmoney Lizards/X
