Bitcoin has traded below Grand Trend’s Forecasting support level since January 2026. Since the trend’s breakdown, BTC has experienced strong bearish pressure, falling below both long-term and short-term realized prices.
Amid this extended, weakened structure, crypto analysts have expressed greater pessimism and projected a prolonged decline, citing realized price data.
Bitcoin continues to show cracks
According to Darkfost, BTC has held below the realized price that excludes inactive supply for two months.
The analyst noted that the realized price, after the adjustment, is approximately $72,500. These price levels now act as immediate resistance.
Looking at the previous bear cycle, Bitcoin held below this cost basis between six and 10 months. If the historical pattern repeats, BTC could see more difficult months before reclaiming and flipping $72,500.
Typically, when market prices remain below realized prices, it means most buyers are holding at a loss. Often, an increase in the number of loss holders increases selling risk, which, if realized, results in more losses.
This is evidenced by the Short-Term Realized Price, which currently stands at $82.3k, according to Checkonchain data. This implies that recent buyers are currently sitting on significant losses, which increases the cohort’s capitulation risk.
In fact, realized losses for short-term holders have stabilized above $300 million per day, with an average of 5k BTC sold at a loss. On the 29th of March, the STH cohort reported a $372 million loss, confirming bearishness.
Historically, continued loss realization has further weakened the market, leading to extended price decline.
Can BTC avoid further slips?
Bitcoin has traded within a bearish structure for nearly five months and stayed below the realized price for two months, reflecting strong downside pressure.
As a result, ADV/DECL has declined below 50, dropping to 35.78, suggesting that most funds have entered a declining asset phase. This implies that sellers are largely dominating the market, and any attempted upside failed to materialize due to a lack of support.
Additionally, the EMA line hovered around 25-35, indicating stubborn weakness and further confirming the trend’s weakness. These market conditions leave BTC exposed to potentially more losses on its price charts.
Therefore, if the market price continues to hold the realized price while STH are selling, BTC could drop towards $62k. However, the realized price on Binance currently sits at around $60,490, providing the market with strong support.
As long as BTC holds above this level, it will avoid further slip and give room for a reversal. But first, BTC must reclaim $72k and flip it, then target the STH realized price of $82k to see significant gains.
Final Summary
- Bitcoin has held below $72,500, the realized price that excludes inactive supply, for two months.
- BTC needs to hold above $60,490 to avoid further slippage and reclaim $72,500 to see any significant gains.
