Altcoin rotation is completely dormant right now. Worse still, most big-cap altcoins haven’t even kept pace with Bitcoin [BTC] on monthly losses, which is capping rotational flows, leaving their risk/reward profile skewed.
Binance Coin [BNB] is no exception. Down 28% so far in 2026, it’s testing critical support zones, taking out longs, and retracing back to Q2 2025’s levels. The BNB/BTC ratio has dropped by 7.12% too, signaling muted rotation.
In short, BNB has been feeling the market FUD. However, flashback to Q4 2025 and key divergences may be in play – Ethereum [ETH] dumped 2x harder than BNB, pushing BNB/ETH up 19% even while the broader market was shaky.
Source: TradingView (BNB/ETH)
Fast-forward to now, and a similar setup might be forming. BNB/ETH is up 7.29% in Q1, with Ethereum roughly 1.5× deeper in the red vs. Binance Coin. From a technical lens, capital is clearly favoring BNB while ETH lags behind.
According to Messari data, this divergence might not be a fluke. In fact, BNB’s Q4 2025 report highlighted strong on-chain performance as average transactions jumped by 30.4% to 17.3 million, while active addresses climbed 13.3% to 2.6 million.
So here’s the question – With BNB showing a similar setup vs. other L1s, is this a sign of solid on-chain fundamentals? And if so, could it repeat its Q4 2025 move and outperform the rest of the L1 pack by the end of Q1 2026?
BNB’s on-chain strength shines through market FUD
Stablecoins acted as a major liquidity driver behind BNB’s Q4 divergence.
In fact, on-chain data revealed that its stablecoin market cap grew by 9.2% QoQ. Leading the pack were USDT at $9.0 billion (up 12.4% QoQ) and USDC at $1.3 billion (up 23.1%) – Providing a strong backbone for capital rotation.
The result? BSC’s RWA value hit $2 billion, up 228% QoQ, making it the second-largest RWA network after Ethereum by the end of 2025. In short, even with market FUD, capital has been clearly flowing across key sectors.
Source: Messari
Naturally, the question then is – Is Binance Coin seeing a similar liquidity move?
According to data from DeFiLlama, BNB’s stablecoin market cap is already up 2.5% so far in Q1, in line with its RWA value, which is up 5% month-to-date to over $2.15 billion. Capital is clearly still flowing on-chain.
In this context, the BNB/ETH ratio seemed to be reflecting this momentum, making rotational flows less speculative and more fundamentals-driven. If this trend holds, BNB could be setting up to repeat its Q4 2025-style outperformance.
Final Thoughts
- BSC’s on-chain strength is holding up despite market FUD, fueling capital rotation, with BNB/ETH showing clear momentum.
- Current liquidity and fundamentals suggest Binance Coin could outperform other L1s, repeating its Q4 2025 cycle.
