Key Takeaways
Bitcoin [BTC] HODLer stress is mounting.
On 16 August, $3 billion+ in realized good points hit the market, sparking the biggest profit-taking spike of the month. Bitcoin responded with a 1.9% intraday dip to $114,707, kicking the week off within the crimson.
Positive, we’re barely per week previous the ATH. So, calling it a high is untimely. Nevertheless, is $114k shaping up as a “robust” accumulation zone? In comparison with $110k, it nonetheless sits above the important thing help cluster, leaving room for a deeper retest.
Supply: Glassnode
On-chain, $116,963 is Bitcoin’s largest cost-basis cluster, holding 700k+ BTC (3.61% of provide) – Making it a significant provide zone that might act as resistance or anchor a pullback.
In easy phrases, $114k would possibly entice some shopping for. Nevertheless, with a heavy provide cluster close to breakeven, the danger of a margin squeeze may be rising. $110k seems just like the extra possible liquidity seize zone earlier than contemporary shopping for kicks in.
Moreover, Bitcoin’s Accumulation Trend Score flipped orange for the primary time this month, tumbling from 0.57 to 0.20 in underneath per week. It underlined a transparent slowdown in HODLer stacking, even at discounted ranges.
Market warning retains Bitcoin FOMO on ice
With HODLer stress constructing and FOMO cooling off, the market has been leaning ask-heavy, with provide calling the photographs on the value motion.
Meaning Bitcoin’s almost 8% pullback from its ATH isn’t random. Bid-side help is fading, creating a transparent order-flow imbalance. In flip, it units the stage for potential liquidity hunts at decrease ranges.
Macro cues are syncing up too. For instance – On Polymarket, 25 September bps rate-cut odds dropped from 80%+ to 73%, whereas no-change contracts surged from 12% to 26% in only a week.
Supply: Polymarket
This divergence issues.
It backs AMBCrypto’s view of a possible $110k retest (or decrease), one the place FOMO might lastly re-engage and drive the subsequent bull leg. This would depart the $114k–$115k zone wanting like a weak help for now.
The logic’s easy – The market was pricing in a This autumn rally based mostly on financial easing. Nevertheless, with that tailwind fading, FOMO’s on pause, reinforcing Bitcoin’s present spot a much less enticing entry for consumers.
