The March CPI print came in. However, market reaction shows that markets already priced in the move.
For context, the Consumer Price Index released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed inflation rising to 3.3%, slightly below the 3.4% forecast.
Meanwhile, core CPI also eased in at 2.6%, just under the expected 2.7%. Still, despite the “softer-than-expected” readings, inflation is now at its highest level since May 2024.
Naturally, the market quickly repriced expectations, pushing rate cuts for 2026 further out.
And yet, Bitcoin [BTC], which closed the day up 1.63%, is making another attempt at breaking the stubborn $75k resistance, suggesting risk appetite is still holding up despite the geopolitical pressure.
From a macro perspective, the inflation move wasn’t a surprise either.
March kicked off with escalating tensions in West Asia, which quickly triggered an oil supply shock. Oil prices surged above $112 per barrel, feeding directly into energy-driven inflation pressures and lifting CPI expectations well ahead of the actual release.
In this context, the “softer-than-expected” CPI readings mainly reflect markets already pricing in the energy-driven inflation move rather than reacting to new information.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin’s resilience therefore reinforces the same message. Price action hasn’t shown any real post-CPI shock.
That raises the question: does the market still underprice macro risk, or does Bitcoin’s steady bid reflect an emerging “safe-haven” narrative in real time?
Bitcoin absorbs volatility, squeezes shorts, and sees gold weaken
Heading into the CPI release, Bitcoin’s price action had already set the stage for liquidity sweeps.
However, Coinglass data shows Bitcoin’s 24-hour liquidations hit $52.52 million, with 80.63% coming from short positions getting squeezed.
This short cascade further reinforces the idea that the CPI print was already priced in, with bears taking the bulk of the hit rather than any fresh directional shock.
From a technical standpoint, this resilience also aligns with recent commentary from Matt Mena, Senior Crypto Research Strategist at 21Shares, in a statement to AMBCrypto.
He highlighted that the current price structure still supports upside continuation, with a move toward $80k remaining a plausible scenario.
The $73k–$75k zone is the next key target. If Bitcoin breaks above it, expect a short period of consolidation before a move toward $80k.
He continued,
If the Clarity Act passes, the setup could extend further, with $100k BTC and a $3–$3.2 trillion total crypto market cap by the end of Q2—roughly a 30–35% upside from current levels.
Backing this view, he pointed to strong ETF inflows, rising Clarity Act approval odds on Polymarket near 60%, and continued Bitcoin accumulation through Strategy’s STRC demand, which enables buying at roughly six times the daily mining supply.
However, AMBCrypto notes that another key catalyst is also in play.
Notably, Bitcoin’s reaction to the CPI didn’t show that markets were underpricing macro risks.
Instead, XAU/BTC, which is down 7.41% so far this week, highlights a clear shift in relative strength between gold and Bitcoin, helping explain why price action held firm despite rising inflation.
From a rotational perspective, this setup reinforces Matt Mena’s $80k Bitcoin thesis.
Final Summary
- CPI came in largely as expected, with Bitcoin showing no real post-print shock.
- Rotation from gold into Bitcoin, alongside strong ETF inflows and bullish structure, reinforces the case for continued BTC upside toward $80k.
