A crypto analyst known as CrypFlow has outlined what he believes will certify the true start of the next Bitcoin bull run. According to the analyst, the flip into a bullish run does not begin at the bottom but only after key technical confirmations appear on the chart. His analysis points to three conditions that must be met before this new cycle can be considered in play.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $71,750, up by 4.3% in the past 24 hours. The past trading day has been highlighted by some bullish momentum, which even saw the Bitcoin price reach an intra-day high of $72,379, according to price data from CoinGecko.Â
Why CrypFlow Says The Bottom Is Not The Start
However, when looking at the long-term price action, Bitcoin is still down by about 43% from its October 2025 peak of $126,000. Crypto market participants are divided as to whether the bottom is already in and the decline has ended and whether there is still more downside price action ahead.Â
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CrypFlow, on the other hand, separates the bottom from the start of a bull run. According to the analyst, the bottom is simply where price stops falling, but that does not mean the broader trend has reversed. What matters is confirmation that Bitcoin is no longer behaving like it is in a bear market.
The chart shared by the analyst highlights how the 50-week SMA and the -14 wave trend level have repeatedly acted as dividing lines between bearish and bullish conditions. Back in 2021, Bitcoin’s cycle top was followed by a breakdown below both levels, which preceded the 2022 bear market.
When transitioning out of the 2022 bear market, the recovery that followed did not immediately lead to a new bull run. Instead, the flip into bullish mood became clear only after Bitcoin broke its long-term downtrend and reclaimed both indicators.
A similar structure is visible in the current cycle. Bitcoin has rejected its 2025 peak and is trading below a descending trendline, while the price is below the 50-week SMA. Furthermore, the wave trend indicator is still below the -14 threshold. As long as these conditions persist, then the Bitcoin price will still be in a corrective or bearish environment, even if there are short-term rallies.
What Needs To Happen Before The Bull Run Starts
According to the analyst, three conditions must be met before calling the start of a new bull cycle. First, Bitcoin must break above the descending trendline from its cycle top. Second, it must reclaim the -14 level on the wave trend indicator. Finally, the price must move back above the 50-week SMA.
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These signals worked together in the previous cycle for the transition into an extended rally. Until they appear again, any recovery in price will be unconfirmed. Keeping in mind that the 50 SMA is a lagging indicator, the goal is not to identify the bottom. It is to confirm the cycle has turned.
Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
